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Chinas insatiable demand for steel combined with a slow recovery in Brazilian supply after a series of outage events has lifted the price of iron ore to a six-year high of 130 a ton, but that could be as good as it gets.
Free quote Send messageThe iron ore price rise to a level last seen in early 2014 continues a process which has seen the steel-making material consistently outperform investment bank forecasts.
The expectation for much of the past six-to-12 months has been for the iron ore price to fall back into the 80t range thanks to a combination of Brazil restoring exports and modest steel demand growth in China.
Chinese demand for steel is keeping the iron ore price high, for now. Photographer Nelson ChingBloomberg.
Both of those predictions have proved wrong with a supply shortage and stronger-than-expected Chinese steel demand driving iron ore higher.
But the next few weeks could see a turn or, as Morgan Stanley described the iron ore market nearing the summit, a view shared by the equally well-connected analysts at another bank, Goldman Sachs.
Neither bank is forecasting a dramatic decline, and perhaps even a final upward leg, before a long slide kicks in.
There is also a warning in the latest research that the share prices of most iron ore miners have moved well ahead of the market for the commodity with some of the better-known producers such as Fortescue Metals downgraded to neutral or sell.
Morgan Stanley said a higher for longer scenario was its new base case for iron ore driven by a slower unwinding of the current tightness in the market through next year.
However, some miners have run ahead of these expectations, implying higher iron ore prices, Morgan Stanley said.
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China continues to prove the market commentators wrong on the iron ore front, with the Asian heavyweights imports still hitting record levels.
In the past three months Chinas iron ore imports have climbed 20 per cent year on year, while year-to-date they are up 11 per cent compared to the previous year.
Questioning why ironore prices so strong Don39tChinese s.a. imports 3rd highest on record Aug previous record Jun amp Jul. In last 3m, Chinese imports 20yy. YTD imports 11 vs yr ago.Chinese imports 100 combined Australia Brazil exports over last 3mNeed I go on pic.twitter.comm910N2ZsZv.
Guy Le Page, director and responsible executive at Perth-based financial services provider RM Corporate Finance, told Stockhead in May that a lot of analysts are not bullish on iron ore and that theyd underestimated the recovery in China.
Mark Eames, non-executive director of emerging South Australian iron ore producer Magnetite Mines ASXMGT,agrees, saying market observers had missed the mark on both the demand and supply front.
8220We8217ve been talking about the same theme for the last 18 months, which is that observers have tended to be quite pessimistic about China8217s prospects in iron ore,8221 he told Stockhead.
8220A lot of people were forecasting that iron ore prices were going to fall from where they were 18 months ago, and in fact they8217ve almost doubled.8221.
Eames said demand had risen from around 800 million tonnes up until mid-2017 to about 900 million tonnes in 2018 before hitting close to a billion tonnes last year.
8220If you translate that, that extra 200 million tonnes of steel production requires effectively another 300 million tonnes of iron ore,8221 he said.
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